The second half opens with a one-game appetizer: Mets at Phillies, 7:10 in South Philly. One game means every number on the board gets the magnifying glass, and tonight's board isn't subtle about its theme. Philadelphia's bats went into the break whisper-quiet, the first innings have been quieter still, and there are 2 live counterpunches lurking underneath it all.
Tonight's game at a glance
| NYM @ PHI | |
|---|---|
| First pitch | 7:10 PM ET, Thursday, July 16 |
| TV | ESPN |
| Venue | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia |
| Expected starters | Christian Scott (R, NYM) vs. Aaron Nola (R, PHI) |
| Moneyline | Phillies -135 |
The trend board at a glance
| Trend | Record | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Phillies NRFI | Scoreless 1st in 12 of last 15 | - |
| Brandon Marsh Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI | Hit in 9 of last 10 | +105 |
| Bryce Harper Under 0.5 RBI | 9 straight | -179 |
| Justin Crawford Over 0.5 Hits | Hit in 16 of last 20 | -180 |
| Juan Soto Under 0.5 Runs | Hit in 14 of last 20 | +110 |
| J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI | 7 in his last game | +105 |
The 1st inning has been a dead zone in Phillies games
Start with the quietest number on the board. Phillies games have opened scoreless in 12 of the last 15, including 6 straight, and the pitching matchup leans right into it. Christian Scott, in his comeback season from Tommy John surgery, is 7-3 to the NRFI over his last 10 starts. Aaron Nola's year has been a grind at 5.75, but he sharpened up heading into the break, punching out 15 over his final 2 starts. Can't find an NRFI price at your book? The First 5 Under 5.5 rides the same wavelength and it's been nearly as steady, staying Under in 11 of the Mets' last 17 with 3 straight, at -113. The lean: a quiet start, NRFI or First 5 Under 5.5.
Brandon Marsh has been a ghost in the box score
No RBI in 10 straight games. That's not a typo, and it's not even the whole story: Marsh's Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI has cashed in 9 of his last 10, and tonight brings another righty in Scott. Here's the fun part. The Under 0.5 RBI alone costs a juiced -190, but the Hits + Runs + RBI Under, the one covering all 3 at once, pays plus money at +105. Same cold bat, friendlier number, and our EV calculator shows exactly how much friendlier. Worth a look: Marsh Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI at +105.
The face of the franchise has a 9-game RBI drought
Bryce Harper hasn't driven in a run in 9 straight, and the July numbers explain why: he's hitting .150 this month. The books have priced the silence accordingly, with his Under 0.5 RBI sitting at -179. One locker over, Alec Bohm's been telling the same story, staying Under 1.5 Total Bases in 16 of his last 21 with 6 straight. That's the heart of the order, both at -179, both frozen, and if you're only laying that kind of juice on one of them, the drought runs deepest with Harper. The lean: the middle of the Phillies lineup stays quiet.
Justin Crawford keeps sneaking hits through
Every quiet board has one loud exception. Crawford's got a hit in 5 straight and 16 of his last 20, and at -180 for the Over 0.5 Hits, the books clearly aren't sleeping on him. Short section, simple read. Worth a look: Crawford Over 0.5 Hits.
The $765 million man keeps getting stranded
Juan Soto has been the lone bright spot in a nightmare Mets first half, and that's exactly the problem: bright spots need somebody to drive them home. Soto's crossed the plate in just 6 of his last 20 games, which is why his Under 0.5 Runs pays +110 tonight, and his Under 1.5 Total Bases (13 of his last 20) points the same way. Nola gets the ball for Philadelphia in his first start since the break, and the run-scoring Under is the cleaner of Soto's 2 numbers. Worth a look: Soto Under 0.5 Runs at +110.
About all that silence: Realmuto didn't get the memo
Here's the board's counterpunch. J.T. Realmuto stuffed 7 combined hits, runs and RBI into his final game before the break, and tonight his Hits + Runs + RBI line sits at 1.5 with the Over paying +105. One game is a story, not a trend, but it's the loudest number on this page and it cuts straight against everything above it. If the Phillies' bats wake up tonight, this is where it shows first. The lean: Realmuto Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI as the live counterpunch.
Quick hits from the rest of the board
- The quiet is contagious: Trea Turner's Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI has cashed 4 straight, at +120.
- +115 on Kyle Schwarber's Under 0.5 Runs looks strange next to his MLB-leading 32 homers, but it's cashed 4 straight and in 14 of his last 19. When he isn't going deep, he isn't scoring.
- Jared Young is the other bat swimming upstream, with his Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI cashing 5 straight at +129.
- One wrinkle worth knowing: Christian Scott's Over 5.5 Strikeouts hit in 9 of his last 11 but missed his final start before the break. It's +105 if you think the rest reset him.
That's the whole board for a one-game night. Friday, the magnifying glass goes back in the drawer: a full slate, the Dodgers in the Bronx, and a fresh daily board here in the morning.
Every record above comes straight from our graded-results database for the exact market listed. One-game samples are noted as exactly that. Odds move all day, so check the current number before betting; our line shopping guide explains why it matters. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.