Thursday, July 23 gives us five games and a board with a clear personality: almost everything clean on it is a bet on nothing happening. Cold bats are everywhere, and the market knows it, so most of these Unders cost real money. Two exceptions are worth finding. One game sits this out entirely: San Diego at Atlanta, where the pitching matchup isn't settled enough to build anything on.
| Bet | Record | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 Total Bases | 25 of the last 30 | -166 |
| Toronto Team Total Under 3.5 | 3 or fewer in 5 straight | +118 |
| Chase DeLauter Over 0.5 Hits | A hit in 23 of the last 26 | -195 |
| Masyn Winn Under 0.5 Runs | Hasn't scored in 10 straight | -187 |
| Minnesota Team Total Over 3.5 | 4+ runs in 18 of the last 24 on the road | +108 |
Ivan Herrera Can't Stretch One Out
Twenty-five of his last 30. That's how often the St. Louis catcher has been held to 1 total base or none, which is the deepest sample of any drought on this slate and the reason his Under keeps getting priced up. The supporting number is the one that matters today: Herrera has landed on that side in 13 of his 15 games against right-handed starters, and Brandon Pfaadt is expected on the mound for Arizona at 5:15 PM ET. Singles are fine here. Anything more is not.
Worth a look: Under 1.5 Total Bases at -166.
Toronto's Lineup Has Gone Missing at Home
The Blue Jays have been held to 3 runs or fewer in 5 straight, and this one pays +118, which is the best price on any clean trend today. It isn't one cold hitter dragging the rest down either. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hasn't driven in a run in 7 consecutive games, and he's finished without an RBI in 18 of his last 23, so the middle of this order is part of the same story rather than a separate one. Ian Seymour is expected to start for Tampa Bay at 3:07 PM ET.
Worth a look: Under 3.5 on the Team Total at +118.
Chase DeLauter Just Keeps Reaching
The rare Over that isn't about power. DeLauter has a hit in 23 of his last 26 and in 7 straight, and the split behind it is the strongest matchup number on this slate: he's reached safely in 17 of 20 against right-handers, with Taj Bradley expected to start for Minnesota in the 1:10 PM ET game. The price is the catch. At -195 you're laying nearly 2 to 1 on a hitter doing the most ordinary thing in baseball, and that is exactly what a 26-game sample like this costs.
Worth a look: Over 0.5 Hits at -195.
Ten Games Since Masyn Winn Touched Home
The longest active drought on the board belongs to the St. Louis shortstop, who hasn't scored in 10 straight and has stayed off the board in 15 of his last 16. Runs need traffic in front of you and someone behind you to knock you in, and the Cardinals have not been providing much of either lately. It's the same lineup Herrera bats in, so treat these two as one read rather than two.
Worth a look: Under 0.5 Runs at -187.
Minnesota Travels Better Than It Looks
The second Over worth a mention, and the only one paying plus money. Minnesota has scored 4 or more in 18 of its last 24 on the road, including a 10-run night in its last time out. Gavin Williams is expected to start for Cleveland. On a slate where the market is charging a premium for every cold bat, a road offense at +108 is a different kind of bet.
Worth a look: Over 3.5 on the Team Total at +108.
Quick hits
- Plus money on a hitter who has disappeared: Kazuma Okamoto has gone hitless in 7 of his last 8, and it pays +142.
- Zach McKinstry hasn't scored in 8 straight, though -180 is a lot to lay on it.
- Jonathan Aranda has stayed off the scoreboard in 7 consecutive games and in 14 of his last 18.
- It isn't just Herrera and Winn. St. Louis as a team has been held to 3 runs or fewer in 13 of its last 17 at home, priced at +114.
A short slate means fewer numbers to keep an eye on, so the current price is the one that counts. Our line shopping guide explains why that gap matters more than most bettors assume, and if a market here is unfamiliar, the betting terminology guide covers Team Totals and combo props in plain language. Yesterday's board ran fifteen games deep by comparison.
Short slates are honest slates. There's nowhere to hide a weak angle when the board is this small, and today it mostly wanted to talk about bats that have stopped working.
Odds and lines cited were accurate at publication and move constantly. Player availability can change up to first pitch. WagerSharp publishes editorial trend coverage, not picks. Please gamble responsibly.