Wednesday, July 29 gives us a board where the scoreboard operators can take the night off. Almost every clean team trend on the evening card points the same direction: fewer runs, quieter innings, tighter numbers. The one offense that didn't get the memo is riding a train to St. Louis.
A note on scope before we start: this board covers the evening games only. The four early starts are left off, along with the Rays and Padres games, where the pitching plans weren't settled at publish time.
| Bet | Record | Price |
|---|---|---|
| STL Team Total Under 3.5 | 17 of last 23 | +105 |
| CHC Team Total Over 3.5 | 17 of last 22 | -135 |
| LAA Game Total Under 9.5 | 11 of last 14 | +100 |
| KC Team Total Under 3.5 | 15 of last 21 | -105 |
| BOS Money Line | 10 of last 11 | -146 |
| SF Team Total Under 3.5 | 17 of last 26 | -117 |
| LAD Team Total Under 4.5 | 20 of last 30 | +115 |
The Cardinals keep getting shut down at home
Start in St. Louis, because that's where the board's cleanest number lives. The Cardinals have been held to 3 runs or fewer in 17 of their last 23, including their last 3 in a row, and the home split is identical at 17 of 23. That's not a splinter of a trend pulled from a friendly corner of the schedule. It's the whole recent body of work saying the same thing.
Matthew Boyd is expected on the mound for Chicago, and the Cardinals' Team Total sits at 3.5 with the Under paying +105. Plus money on a trend running at roughly 74% is the sort of thing that makes a board worth reading twice.
Worth a look: St. Louis Team Total Under 3.5 at +105.
The Cubs are the exception to everything
Here's the fun part: the counterweight is in the very same ballpark. Chicago has put up 4 or more runs in 17 of its last 22, and the Cubs have done it 4 straight times. On the road, where they'll be tonight, it's 16 of 22.
So the same game carries the board's best argument for silence and its best argument for noise, which is exactly how a Cubs-Cardinals night should feel. Dustin May gets the ball for St. Louis. The Cubs' Team Total is 3.5 and the Over is -135, standard chalk for a bat that's been this steady.
Worth a look: Chicago Team Total Over 3.5 at -135.
Anaheim has been a graveyard for run scoring
The Angels' games have finished with 9 or fewer combined runs in 11 of their last 14, and the home version of that run sits at 15 of 21. Tonight's number is 9.5 and the Under is +100, so even money on a trend clearing at nearly 79%.
Grayson Rodriguez is expected to start for the Angels with Hayden Wesneski going for Houston. Late West Coast baseball, a number that keeps landing on the low side, and no juice to pay for it.
Worth a look: Angels Game Total Under 9.5 at +100.
Kansas City's bats haven't traveled
The Royals have been held to 3 runs or fewer in 15 of their last 21 at tonight's number, and every one of those came away from home. Joe Ryan is expected to start for Minnesota, which does the trend no harm at all.
This is the second Team Total Under on the card priced near even money, and that's the tell about this whole board. Books are not making you pay a premium to bet against offense right now, because the offense keeps disappearing on its own.
Worth a look: Kansas City Team Total Under 3.5 at -105.
Boston just keeps winning
Short and simple: the Red Sox have won 10 of their last 11, and they're -146 in Oakland with Patrick Sandoval expected to start against Jacob Lopez. No streak talk needed, because the last one snapped. The record is the story.
Worth a look: Boston Money Line at -146.
San Francisco's offense went missing months ago
The Giants have been held to 3 runs or fewer in 17 of their last 26, and they've done it 3 straight times at home. Shane Drohan is expected to start for Milwaukee in the afternoon opener out west.
That 17 of 26 is a longer, slower trend than the Cardinals number above it, and it comes with more games behind it than anything else in this group. The Under is -117 on a Team Total of 3.5.
Worth a look: San Francisco Team Total Under 3.5 at -117.
Los Angeles has stopped slugging
The Dodgers have been held to 4 runs or fewer in 20 of their last 30, and the home number matches it exactly at 20 of 30. Emerson Hancock is expected to start for Seattle in the nightcap.
There's an honest wrinkle worth naming: that one hasn't landed in the most recent game, so there's no active run to point at. What's left is 30 games of evidence pointing one way, at +115, and a Dodgers lineup whose most famous bat is having the worst season of his career. More on him over on today's player props board.
Worth a look: Los Angeles Team Total Under 4.5 at +115.
Quick hits
- Minnesota's games have finished Under 8.5 in 14 of the last 20, and 9 of 11 at home. The price is +106.
- You're laying -138 on the White Sox at +1.5 on the Run Line, which has landed in 23 of their last 30 at tonight's number.
- Cincinnati's games have stayed Under 9.0 in 15 of the last 24, with Brady Singer expected to start.
- The Royals have covered the +1.5 Run Line 5 straight times, though a 5-game run is a short one, so treat it as a nudge rather than a case.
- Chicago's games have gone Over 8.0 the last 4 times out. Only 4 games, and we're printing it as exactly that.
Seven trends, six of them arguing that nobody can hit anymore, and one stubborn team from the North Side insisting otherwise. If the Cubs go quiet too, this board becomes a rerun.
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