June and July are the quietest months on the football calendar and the loudest for futures bettors, because the numbers are still soft before camp and preseason harden them. The offseason's biggest story for our money isn't a trade, it's a relocation: Klint Kubiak called Seattle's offense to a Super Bowl, then took the Las Vegas head job and brought his zone-run system and his Super Bowl-winning line coach with him. Two of the seven bets below trace straight back to that move.
First, how last year's board aged
Before the new card, a look at the old one. Last June we flagged four futures, and three cashed: the Panthers Over 6.5 wins (they went 8-8 and won the NFC South), DeVonta Smith Over 850.5 receiving yards (956), and Breece Hall Under 5.5 rushing touchdowns (he found the end zone 4 times on the ground). The miss was Cam Ward for Offensive Rookie of the Year at +300, who never became a finalist. At the stakes we published, that is a 3-1 card worth +2 units, a 44% return on what was risked. We're not here to sell you a hit rate. But when a board ages well, we'll show you the receipts.
The board at a glance
| Market | Price | The lean |
|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty Over 975 Rushing Yards | shop it | Over |
| TreVeyon Henderson Over 700 Rushing Yards | shop it | Over |
| Bengals to win the AFC North | +160 | Bet |
| Seattle Seahawks Under 10.5 Wins | shop it | Under |
| Chicago Bears Under 9.5 Wins | shop it | Under |
| Detroit Lions Over 10.5 Wins | near even | Over |
| New York Giants Under 7.5 Wins | shop it | Lean Under |
Futures prices drift all offseason, so the number matters as much as the side. Shop every one of these.
Ashton Jeanty Over 975 rushing yards
Jeanty ran for exactly 975 yards as a rookie, and the books set his 2026 line at that same number, betting on zero growth. Look closer and the growth is the easy part. He piled up those yards on 266 carries, a 3.7 average that sat well below the 4.3 league norm, because Las Vegas fielded the worst run-blocking in football. Now Kubiak installs the same wide-zone system that has minted 1,000-yard backs everywhere it's gone, and Rick Dennison, who won a Super Bowl coaching this exact scheme's offensive line in Denver, rebuilds the front. The workload is already RB1-sized. Nudge the efficiency toward league average on the same volume and Jeanty clears 1,100, never mind 975. He flashed the ceiling with a 138-yard game and a 128-yard game as a rookie behind a sieve. The lean: Over 975, and it could get to 1,200.
Seattle Seahawks Under 10.5 wins
Here's the other side of the Kubiak move. Seattle won it all and then watched its Super Bowl play-caller leave for Las Vegas, offensive staff in tow, handing the keys to first-time coordinator Brian Fleury. Defending champions regress as a rule, not an exception: repeat 11-win seasons after a title are rare, and roughly half of Super Bowl winners miss the playoffs entirely the next year. Now stack that on a brutal address. The NFC West also has the Rams and 49ers sitting at 10.5 wins apiece, so Seattle plays six games against 10-win rosters before it leaves the division. Asking a team that just lost its offensive brain to win 11 in that meat grinder is a tall order. The lean: Under 10.5.
TreVeyon Henderson Over 700 rushing yards
He ran for 911 yards as a rookie. The line is 700. That's the pick in two sentences, but the shape is even better than the total. Buried early behind Rhamondre Stevenson, Henderson took the job over when Stevenson got hurt and never handed it back, ripping off 147 yards in Week 10 and 148 in Week 15 on his way to a 5.1 per-carry season. The market has talked itself into a discount using New England's late-season slog against elite playoff defenses and a banged-up line, both of which have since been addressed. A 200-yard markdown on a back who already beat the number as a rookie, in year two, is the softest line on this board. The lean: Over 700.
Chicago Bears Under 9.5 wins
The popular regression fade this summer is Denver, and it's the wrong one. The Broncos went 14-3 on a record 12 comeback wins, but their plus-90 point differential is the profile of an 11-win team, so the 9.5 line already prices the drop. The cleaner fade sits in Chicago. The Bears went 11-6 and won the NFC North on a plus-26 differential, the shape of a 9-win team, and a 7-4 mark in one-score games, 3 wins better than a coin flip. Their Pythagorean number was 9.1; they banked 11. Two forces pull them back. First, they edged a bunched division while the Lions (9-8) and Packers (9-7-1) slogged through injury-hit years, and both project to leap back past Chicago in 2026. Second, the schedule turns vicious: the Bears drew the NFL's hardest slate by 2025 opponent record, with 3 first-place teams stacked on top of the usual division rotation. Overperformance, a rebounding division and the league's toughest road is not the recipe for 10 wins. The lean: Under 9.5.
Detroit Lions Over 10.5 wins
Here's the other side of that NFC North coin. Detroit went 9-8 in 2025, but the record was a mirage stitched together over an injury list that gutted the roster for months, not a talent cliff. Healthy, the Lions profile as one of the best teams in football: projections favor them in 13 or 14 games, and they drew the single easiest schedule in the league for 2026. The market nudged the number to 10.5, yet the price still hovers near even money, so you're buying a genuine contender at a coin-flip cost. Let last year's injuries regress to normal and 11 wins is the floor, not the ceiling. The lean: Over 10.5.
New York Giants Under 7.5 wins
This is the one that asks for discipline, so we'll be straight about it. The Giants went 4-13, and the roster case for another quiet year is real: injury questions hang over Malik Nabers, Andrew Thomas and rookie Cam Skattebo, and second-year quarterback Jaxson Dart is still finding his footing behind them. The honest complication sits on the sideline. John Harbaugh took the head job and imported a proven, experienced staff, which is exactly why this number leapt from 4 wins to 7.5. Fade the Giants and you're fading Harbaugh too. But 4-win teams rarely jump to 8-plus in a single year, and a demanding NFC East slate offers no favors. The lean: Under 7.5, at a smaller stake than the rest.
Bengals to win the AFC North (+160)
Cincinnati's 2025 came apart the moment Joe Burrow went down, playing just 8 games around turf-toe surgery. Healthy, behind the 3rd-easiest schedule in the league and a defense that finally got real investment, the bounce-back is right there. You can play it two ways: the full-season Over 9.5 wins sits around -170, or the division at +160. We prefer the plus number, because if Burrow drags this team to 10 or 11 wins, the Bengals are usually winning the North anyway. The one obstacle is Baltimore, whose 11.5-win total is the highest in football, so backing Cincinnati here is really backing Burrow over Lamar Jackson. If Burrow is right and healthy, that's a bet worth making at +160. The lean: Bengals to win the AFC North.
The bottom line
Numbers this soft have a short shelf life. Camp battles and preseason headlines will nudge every one of them, so if a line here is one you like, the time is now, not August. We'll grade the whole board next summer, same as we just graded the last one.
Odds move fast in the offseason. Line shopping is the difference between a good bet and a great one, so check our line shopping guide before you fire, and as always, gamble responsibly.