Monday, August 3 gives us eight games and two completely different arguments about how baseball is supposed to be scored. Houston keeps stacking crooked numbers with the AL West lead back in its hands and Texas keeps burying game totals, then you slide east to the Bronx and Chicago and find bats that have gone missing for weeks. Same night, opposite boards.
Tonight's board
| Game | First pitch (ET) | Expected starters |
|---|---|---|
| WSH at PHI | 6:40 | Trevor Williams (R) vs Aaron Nola (R) |
| STL at NYY | 7:05 | Michael McGreevy (R) vs Cam Schlittler (R) |
| PIT at MIL | 7:40 | Bubba Chandler (R) vs Brandon Sproat (R) |
| LAD at CHC | 8:05 | Justin Wrobleski (L) vs Matthew Boyd (L) |
| SF at TEX | 8:05 | Logan Webb (R) vs Cal Quantrill (R) |
| TOR at HOU | 8:10 | Shane Bieber (R) vs Cristian Javier (R) |
| TB at COL | 8:40 | Ian Seymour (L) vs Michael Lorenzen (R) |
| SD at ARI | 9:40 | Michael King (R) vs Brandon Pfaadt (R) |
The trend board
| Bet | Record at tonight's number | Price |
|---|---|---|
| HOU Team Total Over 4.5 | 6 of 6 | -106 |
| TOR Game Total Under 9.0 | 12 of 15 | +100 |
| NYY Team Total Under 4.5 | 13 of 16 | -115 |
| TEX Game Total Over 8.0 | 18 of 23 | -115 |
| TB F5 Total Under 5.5 | 10 of 11 | +108 |
| CHC F5 Total Under 4.5 | 5 of 5 | -120 |
| WSH Team Total Under 4.5 | 4 of 4 | -139 |
Houston hasn't been held to four runs in six weeks of trying
Six games, six times the Astros have cleared a 4.5 team total, and the margin hasn't been thin: they're averaging better than two runs past the number over that stretch. Houston sits back atop the AL West and the lineup is the reason. Tonight they get Shane Bieber, whose move to Toronto has not gone the way anybody drew it up, a 5.74 ERA across seven starts since the trade out of Cleveland.
Worth a look: Houston Team Total Over 4.5 at -106.
The same game says the total is going nowhere
Here's the honest wrinkle, and it lives inside the exact game above. Toronto's games have stayed Under 9 in 12 of their last 15 at tonight's number, four in a row right now, averaging more than two runs south of the line. Both arguments cannot be right. The bridge, if there is one: Cristian Javier carries a 7.17 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP in 21.1 innings, so Houston scoring five doesn't have to mean a quiet night. Pick a side; don't take both.
Worth a look: Toronto Game Total Under 9.0 at even money.
The Bronx bats keep coming up one short
At tonight's 4.5, the Yankees have stayed under their team total in 13 of the last 16 at home. The raw streak line looks better still, but the number moved around over those games and 13 of 16 is what actually replays at 4.5, which is the version worth trusting. New York is a heavy -205 favorite with Cam Schlittler (10-6, 2.04) on the mound, so this isn't a bad-team trend. It's a team that keeps winning 3-2.
Worth a look: Yankees Team Total Under 4.5 at -115.
Texas games refuse to stay small
Nineteen of Texas's last 23 have cleared, 18 of them replay at tonight's 8, and at home the Rangers are 18-3 in their last 21 on the Over, averaging better than two runs clear. Logan Webb is the complication and a real one, since a 3.93 ERA arm is exactly the profile that snaps a run like this. Trends this long usually break on a night like tonight or not at all.
Worth a look: Rangers Game Total Over 8.0 at -115.
An Under walking into Coors Field, on purpose
Tampa Bay's first five innings have finished Under 5.5 in 10 of their last 11 at that number, averaging better than two and a half runs below it, and you can buy it at plus money. The address is the argument against: Coors has never cared what a trend did in a normal ballpark. But first five is where a Coors Under has its best chance, since it prices only the starters, and Ian Seymour (7-3, 4.37) against Michael Lorenzen (3-9, 6.54) tilts one way.
Worth a look: Tampa Bay F5 Total Under 5.5 at +108.
Two lefties, five straight quiet first halves
Chicago's first five innings have gone Under 4.5 in five straight, all five replaying at tonight's number, with the average finishing nearly three runs below it. Tonight is Matthew Boyd (6-1, 3.41) against Justin Wrobleski (11-2, 2.88), which is the most accomplished pitching matchup on the whole board and both of them throw left-handed. Short sample, obviously. It's also the cleanest premise behind any Under here.
Worth a look: Cubs F5 Total Under 4.5 at -120.
The trend that argues with the pitcher
Washington's team total has stayed Under 4.5 in four straight, all four at tonight's number. The catch is who they're facing: Aaron Nola is 3-9 with a 5.61 ERA, so a Nationals lineup that hasn't scored walks into the softest starter on the board. Four games is a small window and the matchup cuts against it, which is why this sits at the bottom instead of the top.
Worth a look: Washington Team Total Under 4.5 at -139, with the Nola caveat attached.
Quick hits
- The Cardinals-Yankees game total has landed Under 8 in five consecutive, 15 of 20 overall, so both sides of that ballpark are pulling the same direction tonight at -108.
- San Francisco's first five have gone Over 4.5 in nine of the last 10, six straight, and it's still priced at +105.
- Houston's F5 run line at -0.5 has cashed in six straight at +113, which is the same read as the team total with a shorter fuse.
- San Diego's run line at -1.5 shows 7-1 in the last eight, but only five of those eight clear the current 1.5, so the headline is prettier than the bet. Our EV calculator shows what that gap costs.
- Milwaukee games have finished NRFI in 14 of the last 19, and 5 of 6 against Pittsburgh specifically.
Two boards, one night. For the player-market version of the same split, today's props board breaks the Astros and Brewers down by hitter. Whichever way you read Monday, somebody's streak is ending.
Prices move all day, so check the current number before you bet; our line shopping guide covers how much that's worth. Please gamble responsibly.