Monday's player-prop board is a gallery of hitters stuck in a rut and hitters who can't stop. William Contreras hasn't driven in a run in 11 straight games. Teoscar Hernandez hasn't been retired without a hit in weeks. Between them sits Paul Goldschmidt, in pinstripes, waiting on the team that made him.
The trend board
| Prop | Record at tonight's line | Price |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras Under 0.5 RBI | 18 of 22 | -200 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 RBI | 14 of 16 | -225 |
| Jeremy Pena Over 0.5 Runs | 11 of 12 | -113 |
| Paul Goldschmidt Under 0.5 Hits | 19 of 28 | +175 |
| Teoscar Hernandez Over 0.5 Hits | 20 of 24 | -198 |
| Junior Caminero Under 0.5 Runs | 14 of 17 | +135 |
| Ryan Waldschmidt Over 0.5 Hits | 10 of 11 | -120 |
Eleven games without an RBI from Milwaukee's best hitter
Contreras is an All-Star catcher hitting in the middle of a good lineup, which is what makes this strange. He has stayed Under 0.5 RBI in 11 consecutive games, 18 of his last 22, and every one of those replays at tonight's line. Against right-handers specifically he's 15-4 in his last 19. Bubba Chandler (3-8, 4.56) is the right-hander tonight, and Chandler has been hittable, which is the honest argument against a run this long. Eleven straight is eleven straight, though, and the price reflects that the market has noticed.
Worth a look: Contreras Under 0.5 RBI at -200.
Vlad's bat is working, the RBI column isn't
Guerrero has been held Under 0.5 RBI in six straight and 14 of his last 16, all 14 replaying at tonight's number, and it's 14-5 in his last 19 against right-handed starting pitching. Cristian Javier is the right-hander, and Javier's 7.17 ERA says runs are available in this game, which cuts both ways: Toronto scoring doesn't require Guerrero to be the one driving them in. This is the board's clearest case of a good hitter whose counting stat has decoupled from his at-bats. The juice is steep, so treat the number as information first.
Worth a look: Guerrero Under 0.5 RBI at -225.
Pena keeps finding his way home
Different game, same lineup, opposite direction. Jeremy Pena has scored in 11 of his last 12, four in a row, with all 11 replaying at tonight's line, and he's coming off a three-game stretch averaging better than four total bases a night. Houston's offense has cleared its team total in six straight, so the run environment supports him, and Shane Bieber's 5.74 ERA since arriving in Toronto is the softest landing spot Pena has had in a week.
Worth a look: Pena Over 0.5 Runs at -113.
Goldschmidt gets his old club, and a plus-money Under
The story writes itself and the number happens to agree. Goldschmidt has finished without a hit in four straight, 19 of his last 28 replaying at tonight's 0.5, and it's 11-3 in his last 14 against righties. Tonight he faces St. Louis and Michael McGreevy (4-9, 3.57), which is the sort of reunion that gets a hitter pressing. Nineteen of 28 is a real rate but not an overwhelming one, and you're being paid +175 rather than laying juice for the privilege, which is the right shape for a trend this size.
Worth a look: Goldschmidt Under 0.5 Hits at +175.
The Dodger who eats left-handed pitching
Hernandez has recorded a hit in 20 of his last 24, all 20 replaying at tonight's line, and the split is the reason he's here: 8-0 in his last eight against left-handed starters. Matthew Boyd (6-1, 3.41) is the left-hander at Wrigley tonight. Boyd has been the better version of himself this year, which is the caution, but an 8-0 platoon run against exactly the hand he's facing is not a coincidence you talk yourself out of. You're laying real money at -198.
Worth a look: Hernandez Over 0.5 Hits at -198.
A scoreless streak walking into Coors Field
Here's the one that should make you uncomfortable. Caminero has stayed Under 0.5 Runs in 14 of his last 17, all 14 at tonight's number, and it pays +135. It also happens at Coors Field, where nobody's Under has ever felt safe, against Michael Lorenzen (3-9, 6.54). Tampa Bay is a road favorite in a park that turns favorites into scoreboards. The trend is clean; the address is the tension. That's the whole section, and it belongs on the board precisely because it argues with itself.
Worth a look: Caminero Under 0.5 Runs at +135, with the ballpark understood.
Arizona's rookie keeps reaching
Waldschmidt has a hit in six straight and 10 of his last 11, all 10 replaying at 0.5, with the average landing comfortably clear. He draws Michael King (6-7, 3.38) in the nightcap, the toughest assignment in this group, and rookies do get days off. Short and simple: the form is real, the sample is honest, the matchup is the hard part.
Worth a look: Waldschmidt Over 0.5 Hits at -120.
Quick hits
- Eight straight games with a hit for George Springer, 18 of his last 21, and he's the reason Toronto's lineup isn't as quiet as its Unders suggest.
- Alejandro Kirk hasn't scored in seven consecutive, 11 of his last 12, though at -175 you're paying most of the way there.
- Jake Bauers has a hit in eight straight, all eight at tonight's 0.5, off a lineup spot that keeps producing.
- Tyler Freeman has stayed Under 1.5 total bases in eight straight and 20 of his last 24, which is a fine trend everywhere except the ballpark he plays in.
- Trent Grisham hasn't scored in five straight and 9 of his last 10, in a game where both team totals are pointing down; see tonight's team trends board for that side.
Monday's version of drama is a catcher who can't get an RBI and a rookie who can't stop singling. Come back tomorrow and half of these will have flipped, which is rather the point.
Numbers move between now and first pitch, so check the current price; our line shopping guide explains what that's worth over a season. Please gamble responsibly.