Sunday's board is a getaway-day pileup. 13 of the 15 games start between 1:35 and 2:35 PM ET on July 26, which means most of this slate happens at once and then it's gone. The other thing worth knowing before you sort through it: the scoreboards have been staying quiet almost everywhere you look.
That isn't a vibe. Of the clean trends on today's board, better than two-thirds point at the Under, and the loudest of them all sits in Detroit.
Trend board
| Bet | Record | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Royals Team Total Under 3.5 | Held to 3 or fewer in 8 straight | +105 |
| Dodgers-Mets Game Total Under 9.0 | Under in 9 of the last 10 | -104 |
| Rangers-Mariners Game Total Over 7.0 | Over in 16 of the last 18 | -115 |
| Cubs Money Line | 15-4 in their last 19 | +113 |
| Twins Game Total Under 10.0 | Under in 13 of the last 18 | -108 |
| Tigers Game Total Under 9.0 | Under in 14 of the last 19 | -105 |
The Royals can't find a third run
Kansas City has been held to 3 runs or fewer in 8 straight, and the Team Total is set at 3.5 again today at +105. Across that run they've averaged 2.25 runs a game. Twice they managed exactly 1.
Here's the honest wrinkle, and it's a real one. Kansas City's bats genuinely woke up coming out of the All-Star break, and reporting through late July had them among the better offenses in the league over that stretch. Then the last three games happened: 3 runs, then 1, then 3. Whatever the month-long shape says, the recent games keep landing on the same side of this number.
Luinder Avila is expected to get the ball for the Royals, with Framber Valdez expected on the mound for Detroit. First pitch is 1:40 PM ET.
Worth a look: Royals Team Total Under 3.5 at +105.
Dodgers and Mets in a 9.0
Los Angeles at New York is the marquee game on a slate that mostly isn't, and it's been trending down. The Under has cashed in 9 of the Mets' last 10, including 4 in a row, and those games have averaged 6.3 combined runs against an average number of 8.25.
Today's Total is 9.0, which is higher than most of the numbers that streak was built against. Emmet Sheehan is expected to start for the Dodgers, Freddy Peralta for the Mets. 1:40 PM ET.
Worth a look: Game Total Under 9.0 at -104.
The one game nobody told about the pattern
Every board needs a counterexample, and Texas is it. The Over has hit in 16 of the Rangers' last 18, and those 18 games produced 11 runs a night on average. Today's number is 7.0, a full run below the 8.03 average line that run was built against.
The tension is obvious once you see the pitching matchup. Jacob deGrom is expected on the bump for Texas against Logan Gilbert, and reporting through July had deGrom giving up 2 runs or fewer in 6 of his previous 7 starts. So this is the board's loudest Over pointed directly into the best arm on the slate. Something has to give. That's exactly what makes it the one to circle at 2:35 PM ET.
Worth a look: Game Total Over 7.0 at -115.
Chicago keeps winning as the dog
The Cubs have won 15 of their last 19, and today they're listed at +113 in Pittsburgh. Jameson Taillon is expected to start against Braxton Ashcraft.
That's plus money on a team riding a 4-game win streak. Not complicated.
Worth a look: Cubs Money Line at +113.
Minnesota's number is up, the scoring isn't
The Twins draw a Game Total of 10.0 today, which is more than a run above where their recent games have been priced. The Under has still cashed in 13 of their last 18, and 3 in a row, with those games averaging 8.11 combined runs against an average number of 8.81.
Oakland's Jeffrey Springs is the expected starter, with Connor Prielipp expected to answer for Minnesota. It's a 2:10 PM ET start, and this one is the quiet version of the same story the whole board is telling.
Worth a look: Game Total Under 10.0 at -108.
Back to Detroit, from the other side
The Royals aren't the only reason this game keeps landing low. Detroit's games have finished Under in 14 of the last 19, with the Under cashing 4 straight, and today's number sits at 9.0. Those 19 games averaged 7.37 runs.
Put the two halves together and you get the cleanest confluence on the board: one offense held to 3 or fewer in 8 straight walking into a park where the Total has been going Under all month. Getaway day, 1:40 PM ET, and both sides of the scoreboard pointing the same direction.
Worth a look: Game Total Under 9.0 at -105.
Quick hits
- Oakland's bats have been capped at 4 runs or fewer in 14 of their last 20, and the Team Total Under 4.5 is -115.
- +105 also buys you Baltimore, where the Under has landed in 13 of the last 18 with the number at 8.5. Even money, near enough.
- San Diego is 7-0 against the Run Line over its last 7, getting +1.50 in Miami at -178.
- Pittsburgh games have opened quiet lately: the Pirates are 9-1 to the NRFI in their last 10, with 4 straight scoreless first innings.
- One honest caveat on a tempting number. Kansas City's F5 Total Under has hit in 11 of the last 12, but at today's 5.0 specifically it replays in only 9 of those 12. The full-game angle is the cleaner read.
Two we left alone: the Yankees Game Total Under 8.0 looks great at 14 of 19 until you replay it at today's 8.0, where it's 10 of 19. Houston's Run Line -1.50 has the same problem. A record built at different numbers isn't the same bet.
You can compare prices with our line shopping guide before you commit to any of these, and if NRFI is new to you, our betting terminology guide covers it. Player markets are over on today's props board.
Sunday's slate is a sprint. By 3 PM ET most of it will already be decided, and if the last month means anything, most of those scoreboards will read lower than you'd expect. Please gamble responsibly.