Deadline eve, and the schedule put four games on the board before 2:30 PM ET. The MLB betting trends worth knowing on Thursday, July 30 start in that afternoon block, where two clubs whose totals have spent a month pulling in opposite directions run straight into each other at noon. After that, the board goes quiet in a hurry.
| Bet | Record | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Red Sox at Athletics, Under 10 | Under in 13 of Boston's last 18 | -105 |
| Royals First 5 Innings Under 5.5 | Under in 13 of the last 15 | -125 |
| Reds Team Total Under 4.5 | Held to 4 or fewer in 18 of 24 | -115 |
| Rangers at Rays, Under 7.5 | Under in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 | -106 |
| Padres NRFI | 6-0 in their last 6 | - |
| Mariners Team Total Under 3.5 | 3 or fewer in 14 of the last 20 | +120 |
Boston keeps turning Sacramento into a pitcher's park
The Red Sox close out their series at Sutter Health Park with a number that looks nothing like the results. Tonight's Total is 10. The Under has cashed 5 in a row, and in 13 of Boston's last 18. All three games of this series have finished Under, the most recent a 4-2 Boston win in 10 innings on Wednesday night. That is 6 runs in a park built to give up more.
Sonny Gray gets the ball for Boston, and he has been the reason a lot of those numbers stayed small: 12-2 with a 2.78 ERA since arriving from St. Louis, with extension talk following him into deadline week. Mason Barnett is expected to start for the Athletics carrying a 4.74 ERA, so this is not a matchup that screams zeros. The trend has not cared.
Worth a look: the Under at 10 (-105).
Runs are hiding in the early innings in Minneapolis
Kansas City and Minnesota get going at 1:40 PM ET, and the first half of these games has been closed for business. The Under on the Royals' First 5 Innings Total has hit in 13 of their last 15, and in 22 of 30 when they have faced a right-handed starter. Bailey Ober is the righty this afternoon.
Here is the part that matters more than either streak: Minnesota's full-game Under has landed in 14 of its last 19. Both sides of this game have been pointing the same direction, which is the strongest thing a totals trend can have going for it. Noah Cameron is expected on the mound for Kansas City.
The lean is to the First 5 Innings Under 5.5 (-125).
Cincinnati's bats have gone whisper-quiet at home
The Reds have been held to 4 runs or fewer in 18 of their last 24, and they have done it against right-handed starters in 20 of 30 games. Yohan Ramírez is expected to get the ball for Pittsburgh, which puts a righty back in front of them at 7:10 PM ET.
Their last 2 both landed on the quiet side of the Team Total, and so did all 3 of their most recent meetings with Pittsburgh. The number sits at 4.5.
Worth a look: the Reds Team Total Under 4.5 (-115).
Something has to give at noon in Tampa
This is the honest one. Texas games have gone Over in 16 of the last 19, and 8 of 9 when the Rangers have faced a left-handed starter. Shane McClanahan, a lefty, is expected to start for Tampa Bay. That is the case for the Over, and it is a real one.
Now the other side. Tampa Bay games have stayed Under in 6 of the last 7, including all 4 at home. And Texas's own run cooled off at exactly the wrong moment: the last 2 Rangers games both finished Under. Only one of these patterns walks out of the afternoon intact. The number is 7.5, and Cole Winn is expected to start for Texas.
Worth a look: the Under at 7.5 (-106), with the caveat that a 16-of-19 Over run is the reason to check the number before you do anything.
San Diego opens quiet, and both starters are lefties
The first inning in San Diego has been a dead zone. Padres games are 6-0 to the NRFI in their last 6, and 14-8 when the opposing starter throws left-handed. Robbie Ray is expected to start for San Francisco and JP Sears for San Diego, so that is two lefties on a 9:40 PM ET card. If NRFI is new to you, our betting terminology guide has it.
This one stands out as the tidiest first-inning angle on the board.
Seattle's number is small and the price is not
Short one. The Mariners have been held to 3 runs or fewer in 14 of their last 20, and their Team Total Under 3.5 pays +120 in Los Angeles. Roki Sasaki is expected to start for the Dodgers.
Could be a value play at +120.
Quick hits
- St. Louis has been held to 4 runs or fewer 4 games in a row, and in 18 of its last 24, with the Team Total Under 4.5 at -135.
- The Royals Run Line +1.5 is a perfect 6 for 6, and that is the whole honest story: 6 games, no more.
- +102 on the Giants Team Total Under 3.5, which has landed 3 straight and in 14 of their last 18.
- Minnesota has stayed under its own 4.5 in 12 of its last 17 at home, at even money.
- Pittsburgh's side of that Cincinnati game cuts the other way entirely: the Over has hit in 7 of the last 8 meetings between these two. Both can be true at once, since it only takes one offense to get there.
If you want the player markets instead of the game markets, today's props board has the bats and arms.
The deadline lands tomorrow, which means some of the names in the paragraphs above may be wearing something else by Friday night. The numbers, at least, do not get traded.
Prices move fast on a 10-game board, so check the current number with our line shopping guide before you bet, and always gamble responsibly. Read more on responsible gaming.