On July 19, Austin Riley went 3-for-4 with 2 home runs, 4 RBI and 2 runs scored. He has not touched home plate since. That is the shape of the MLB player props board on Thursday, July 30: hitters are hitting, and almost nobody is finishing the trip. Four of the day's games start before 2:30 PM ET, so the reads come early.
| Prop | Record | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley, Under 0.5 Runs | Hasn't scored in 10 straight | -155 |
| Ty France, Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI | Cleared it in 14 of his last 15 | +101 |
| Sean Burke, Under 2.5 Earned Runs | 2 or fewer in 7 straight starts | -140 |
| Xavier Edwards, Under 0.5 Runs | Scoreless in 18 of his last 20 | -225 |
| CJ Abrams, Over 0.5 Runs | Scored in 9 of his last 10 | +100 |
| Shane McClanahan, Under 4.5 Strikeouts | Under his number in 6 straight | +127 |
Riley's bat woke up. His legs never left the box.
10 games, zero runs. Riley's Under 0.5 Runs has cashed in all 10, and it is priced at -155 against Washington.
Here is the tension, and it is real: this is not a cold hitter. Since July 4 he has slugged .578 with 13 hits, enough for Walt Weiss to move him back into the cleanup spot, and the two-homer afternoon in Texas on July 19 was the loudest game any Brave has had this month. Then the scoreboard stopped cooperating. He has spent 10 straight games reaching base, driving guys in, doing everything except coming around himself. Atlanta is also coming off a doubleheader split with the Mets that ended 1-0, which is one way to keep a cleanup hitter's run total at zero.
Jake Irvin is expected to start for the Nationals, making his first appearance since May after a shoulder strain cost him just over two months.
Worth a look: the Under at -155, with eyes open. A bat this warm eventually scores.
Ty France has been a hit-and-drive machine in San Diego
Different story entirely. France has cleared his Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI in 14 of his last 15 games, all of them graded at tonight's exact 1.5, and he has done it 6 games running. In that 15-game stretch he averaged 3.40, more than double the number.
The matchup lines up too. France has cleared this number in each of his last 4 games against a left-handed starter, and Robbie Ray, a lefty, is expected on the mound for San Francisco. Not bad for a player who signed a minor league deal in February and had to earn his way onto the Opening Day roster.
The price is +101.
This one stands out.
The quietest arm on the afternoon card
Sean Burke has not allowed more than 2 earned runs in 7 straight starts, averaging 1.14 across that run. The Under 2.5 Earned Runs is -140 for the 2:10 PM ET game against New York, where Ryan Weathers is expected to start.
The lean is to the Under.
18 of 20, and the streak is at 8
The biggest number on the board belongs to Xavier Edwards, who has not scored a run in 8 consecutive games and has stayed off the scoreboard in 18 of his last 20. He has done it in 14 of his last 19 against right-handed starters, and Nolan McLean, a righty, gets the ball for the Mets.
We are printing this one as a fact rather than a lean. Under 0.5 Runs at -225 asks you to risk more than double to win one, and a streak this long is exactly when a number gets expensive.
Somebody has to score, and Abrams keeps volunteering
The counterweight to Riley sits in the same ballpark, in the other dugout. CJ Abrams has scored in 9 of his last 10, averaging 1.10 runs a game in that stretch, and his Over 0.5 Runs is even money at +100. No active run to speak of, just a leadoff man who keeps turning up on the scoreboard while the guy hitting fourth for the other team cannot buy a trip around the bases.
Worth a look: Over 0.5 Runs at +100.
McClanahan opens the day with a short leash on the punchouts
First pitch of the entire slate, 12:10 PM ET. Shane McClanahan has gone Under his Strikeouts number in 6 straight starts, punching out 3, 3, 5, 4, 4 and 3 along the way. Today's number is 4.5 at +127, and those 6 counts are printed above for a reason: 5 of them land on the right side of 4.5, one does not.
Could be a value play at +127.
Quick hits
- Even money on Manny Machado to score, and he has done it in 9 of his last 10, 6 of them in a row.
- Nolan McLean has punched out 7 or more in 7 of his last 8, averaging 7.50, with the Over 6.5 Strikeouts at +108.
- Nathaniel Lowe hasn't driven in a run in 26 of his last 30, which is the kind of number that stops being a slump and starts being a pattern.
- Chase Meidroth has cleared his Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI 4 straight times at +105, averaging 3.00 in his last 7.
- One more scoreless streak, because the board insists: Jimmy Crooks has stayed off the scoreboard in 17 of his last 18.
For the game markets, tonight's team trends board has the totals and run lines.
The deadline hits tomorrow afternoon, and a few of these names could be packing. Riley's run total probably will not notice either way.
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